1,750亿美元退税池与新兴债权交易市场
The $175 Billion Refund Pool & a New Claims Market
2026年2月20日，美国最高法院在 Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump 案中以6:3裁定IEEPA不授权总统征税。自2025年2月起至2026年2月24日，超过33万家进口商缴纳的约1,660亿至1,750亿美元关税理论上应予退还。
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. Approximately $166–175 billion in tariffs paid by over 330,000 importers between February 2025 and February 24, 2026 are theoretically subject to refund.
然而，最高法院没有提供任何退款时间表。CIT于2026年3月4日发布"普遍退款令"，但CBP以无法处理5,300万条目为由申请暂缓，并开始开发CAPE专用退款系统。截至2026年4月，实际退款尚未发放。
However, the Supreme Court provided no refund timeline. The CIT issued a Universal Refund Order on March 4, 2026, but CBP obtained a stay, citing inability to process 53 million entries. CBP began building the CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries) system. As of April 2026, actual refund disbursements have not commenced.
正是在这一背景下，一个主要存在于破产债权和诉讼融资领域的交易模式迅速扩张到IEEPA空间：进口商将退税申请的经济参与权以折扣价出售给机构买家，换取确定的即时流动性。
Against this backdrop, a transaction model familiar in bankruptcy claims and litigation finance has rapidly entered the IEEPA space: importers sell participation rights in their refund claims to institutional buyers at a discount, in exchange for immediate, certain liquidity.
市场参与者
Market Participants
Texas Capital Bank已公开声明其Credit Sales & Trading团队正积极介入IEEPA退税权利的购买；Asset Enhancement Solutions（AES）在最高法院裁决后不到六周内促成超过2,000万美元的变现交易；多家专注不良资产的对冲基金和诉讼融资公司也正积极建仓。
Texas Capital Bank has publicly announced its Credit Sales & Trading team is actively purchasing IEEPA refund claims. Asset Enhancement Solutions (AES) facilitated over $20 million in monetization transactions within six weeks of the ruling. Multiple distressed asset hedge funds and litigation finance firms are actively building positions in this market.
参与权 vs 完全转让：结构决定风险
Participation vs. Full Assignment: Structure Determines Risk
这类变现交易最核心的结构性问题是：出售什么？实践中有两种模式，选择哪种对出售方的持续义务、风险敞口和未来权益影响巨大。
The central structural question is: what exactly is being sold? Two main models exist, and the choice significantly impacts the seller's ongoing obligations, risk exposure, and future upside.
进口商保留申请人身份，以自己名义向CBP/CAPE/CIT申请退税，但将最终退款金额的经济权益转让给买方。这是市场主流结构，因为关税退款权利在美国海关法下通常不可自由转让——只有进口商记录人才有资格向CBP申请退款。
The importer retains its status as named claimant and continues filing with CBP/CAPE/CIT in its own name, while transferring the economic interest in eventual refund proceeds to the buyer at a discount. This is the market standard because tariff refund rights are generally not freely transferable — only the importer of record has standing to claim from CBP.
尝试将退税请求权完整转让给第三方。但31 U.S.C. § 3727（Assignment of Claims Act）对政府债权转让有严格限制。即便双方签署了转让协议，CBP也只向记录在案的进口商退款，而非受让方。出售方应避免接受这一结构，除非经过专业法律分析。
Attempting to fully transfer the refund claim to a third party. The Assignment of Claims Act (31 U.S.C. § 3727) imposes strict requirements. Even if the parties sign an assignment, CBP will only pay refunds to the importer of record. Sellers should avoid this structure without careful legal analysis.
因为主流结构是参与权而非完全转让，进口商在出售后仍须承担申请退税的积极义务——向CAPE提交申报、配合文件准备、响应CBP质疑。"卖掉就不管了"的预期是错误的。合同必须精确界定出售方的配合义务范围和成本承担。
Because the structure is participation rather than assignment, the importer retains active obligations to pursue the refund claim after the sale — submitting CAPE filings, preparing documentation, responding to CBP inquiries. "Selling means walking away" is a misconception. The agreement must precisely define cooperation scope and cost allocation.
混合结构：部分出售保留Upside
Hybrid Structure: Partial Sale with Retained Upside
对于退税金额较大的进口商，值得考虑：出售部分经济参与权，保留另一部分作为自留份额。例如，出售70%经济权益换取即时流动性，保留30%等待实际退款。若退款超出预期（含利息），出售方可以分享Upside；同时，保留权益也向买方传达了对权利有效性的信心，通常有助于提高已出售部分的报价。
For importers with substantial refund amounts, consider selling a portion of the economic participation while retaining a self-held stake. For example, sell 70% of the economic interest for immediate liquidity, retain 30% to participate in the eventual refund. If the refund exceeds projections (including interest), the seller shares in the upside. The retained stake also signals confidence in claim validity to buyers — typically helping achieve a higher price on the portion sold.
你的权利值多少钱？
What Is Your Claim Worth?
了解市场价格区间是谈判的基础。以下数据来自 Alston & Bird、ABF Journal、EisnerAmper、Texas Capital Bank 等机构的公开披露：
Understanding the market pricing range is the prerequisite for any negotiation. The following data is drawn from publicly available disclosures by Alston & Bird, ABF Journal, EisnerAmper, and Texas Capital Bank:
裁决前Fentanyl Tariffs
Pre-Ruling
裁决前Reciprocal Tariffs
Pre-Ruling
裁决前All-Type Average
Pre-Ruling
裁决后Current Buy Range
Post-Ruling
50%~72%是当前市场区间，并非所有权利都能拿到上限。决定具体报价的六个关键因素：
50%–72% is a range, not a guarantee. Six factors determine where your specific claim falls within this range:
所有进口条目、关税支付单据齐全，清算状态明确，CBP ACH已注册。文件越干净，定价越高。
Complete entry records, duty payment documentation, clear liquidation status, CBP ACH enrolled. Cleaner documentation = higher pricing.
有书面记录将关税成本转嫁给下游客户，将增加下游索赔风险，通常压低定价5%~15%。
Written documentation attributing price increases to IEEPA tariffs increases downstream claim risk, typically reducing pricing by 5%–15%.
通常需超过100万美元才具备可交易性；低于50万美元时，买方尽调成本比例过高，会大幅压价。
Typically needs to exceed $1M for meaningful marketability. Below $500K, buyer due diligence costs become disproportionate, significantly compressing pricing.
未清算或在180天抗议期内的条目价值最高；已最终清算超出抗议期的条目存在显著法律障碍。
Unliquidated or within 180-day protest window = highest value. Finally liquidated beyond protest period = significant legal barriers and material discount.
已向CIT提起诉讼、提交行政抗议的权利明显优于被动等待的权利，定价更高。
CIT suit filed and administrative protests submitted = materially higher value than passively waiting for administrative process.
已收到下游客户保全函或诉讼的权利，买方会大幅折扣以覆盖风险，应提前完成评估。
Received downstream demand letters or active suits = significant buyer discount to cover risk. Assess proactively before approaching buyers.
在与任何买家谈判之前，先完成内部权利量化——整理所有条目记录、清算状态和抗议期截止日期。权利越清晰，越有底气要求接近区间上限的报价。买方之所以能压价，往往是因为出售方自己都不清楚权利的准确规模。
Before approaching any buyer, complete your internal claim quantification — compile all entry records, liquidation status, and protest deadlines. The clearer the claim, the stronger your position to demand top-of-range pricing. Buyers compress prices precisely because sellers often don't know their own claim size accurately.
出售前必做的六项准备
Six Pre-Sale Actions That Maximize Your Price
专业买家会进行深度尽调，目的是找到压价依据。出售方应先完成"自我尽调"，主动消除压价理由，展示权利质量。
Sophisticated buyers conduct thorough due diligence specifically designed to identify reasons to reduce their offer. Sellers should complete an internal "self-due-diligence" first — proactively eliminating pressure points and demonstrating claim quality.
- 完成CBP ACH退款系统注册。这是领取退款的前提条件。未注册即便胜诉也会被CBP拒绝退款，是买方尽调的第一个检查项。 Complete CBP ACH refund enrollment. Prerequisite for receiving any refund. Importers not enrolled will have refunds rejected by CBP even if they prevail. First item on any buyer's due diligence checklist.
- 汇总所有IEEPA关税支付记录。从CBP的ACE系统下载全部相关进口条目，确认每笔条目的IEEPA关税金额、支付日期和HTS编码。这是权利估值的基础数据集。 Compile all IEEPA duty payment records. Download all relevant import entries from CBP's ACE system, confirming the IEEPA duty amount, payment date, and HTS code per entry. This is the foundation of claim valuation.
- 确认每笔条目的清算状态。分类为：(1) 未清算；(2) 已清算但在180天抗议期内；(3) 已最终清算超过180天。第三类权利回收存在最大不确定性，需单独分析。 Confirm liquidation status of each entry. Categorize as: (1) unliquidated; (2) liquidated but within the 180-day protest window; (3) finally liquidated beyond 180 days. The third category carries the greatest recovery uncertainty and requires separate analysis.
- 评估下游转嫁情况。检查2025年4月至2026年2月期间对买家的价格调整记录。若有明确书面记录将关税作为提价依据，该部分权利面临下游索赔风险，须在定价中有所反映。 Assess downstream pass-through exposure. Review pricing communications to customers from April 2025 through February 2026. Written documentation explicitly attributing price increases to IEEPA tariffs creates downstream claim risk — must be reflected in pricing and addressed in sale documentation.
- 采取法律权利保全措施。对已清算条目提交行政抗议；考虑向CIT提起诉讼保留所有追索渠道。未采取保全措施的权利在买方眼中价值显著打折。 Preserve legal rights. File administrative protests for liquidated entries within the 180-day window; consider filing suit at CIT to preserve all recovery channels. Unpresented rights are materially discounted by buyers.
- 梳理下游索赔敞口。是否已收到客户要求分享退税的函件或诉讼？这些敞口是买方的重要筹码，应提前完成法律评估并确定处理方案。 Map downstream claim exposure. Have you received demand letters or suits from customers asserting refund-sharing rights? This is key negotiating leverage for buyers and must be assessed before entering negotiations.
六大条款逐项解析
Six Terms Point by Point
以下是参与权出售协议（Participation Agreement）中对卖方影响最大的六个核心条款。
The following covers the six most seller-consequential provisions in an IEEPA refund claim Participation Agreement.
购买价格通常表述为"确认权利金额（Confirmed Claim Amount）的X%"。卖方目标：最大化X；确保"确认权利金额"不被买方单方面折扣；争取超出预期退款的Upside分享权。
Purchase price is typically expressed as "X% of Confirmed Claim Amount." Seller goals: maximize X; ensure the definition isn't unilaterally discounted by buyers; negotiate upside sharing on recoveries exceeding projections.
关键谈判点：买方常在"确认权利金额"的定义上做文章，将不确定性折算进基础值。卖方应坚持：确认权利金额 = 进口商实际支付的IEEPA关税总额，不应被单方面打折。若买方要求对特定类型条目折扣，应要求明确的量化依据。
Key leverage: Buyers often compress the "Confirmed Claim Amount" by embedding discounts for uncertainty into the base. Sellers should insist: Confirmed Claim Amount = total IEEPA duties actually paid, without unilateral buyer discounts. Where buyers demand haircuts on specific entry categories, require explicit, quantified justification.
出售方最重要的保护是确保交易结构为非追索性（Non-Recourse）——买方购买的是权利，而不是向卖方提供有保障的借款。若退款因外部原因无法到账，买方不能向卖方追索已支付的购买价格。
The most important seller protection is a genuinely non-recourse structure — the buyer is purchasing a right, not making a secured loan. If the refund is delayed or reduced due to external factors, the buyer cannot pursue the seller for return of the purchase price.
陈述保证的合理范围：卖方可接受：(1) 是进口商记录人；(2) 关税已实际支付；(3) 已知重大瑕疵已披露；(4) 无在先转让。卖方应拒绝：保证退款的最终金额、时间表、或下游不存在任何索赔。
Acceptable representation scope: Sellers may represent: (1) is importer of record; (2) duties actually paid; (3) known material defects disclosed; (4) no prior assignment. Sellers should refuse to: guarantee ultimate refund amount, timeline, or absence of any downstream claims.
由于进口商在出售后仍须以自己名义申请退税，买卖双方必须明确界定：谁控制申请策略、谁承担申请成本、以及配合义务的具体范围和上限。
Because the importer remains the named claimant after the sale, both parties must clearly define who controls the claim strategy, who bears costs, and what the cooperation obligation entails — including explicit limits.
和解否决权是核心保护：无论谁主导申请，买方不得在未经卖方同意的情况下接受任何对卖方不利的和解——即便卖方已将全部经济权益出售，和解决定可能影响卖方的法律地位和下游索赔风险。
Settlement veto right is essential: Regardless of who controls the claim, the buyer must not accept any settlement materially adverse to the seller without seller consent — even if the seller sold 100% of economic participation, settlements may affect the seller's legal standing and downstream litigation exposure.
这是2026年IEEPA退税变现市场中最复杂的风险点。大量进口商曾将IEEPA关税成本转嫁给下游买家。最高法院裁决后，下游买家开始以"双重补偿"为由对进口商提起集体诉讼。当进口商出售退税参与权后，这个法律风险并未消失——退税收到了，但下游诉讼的目标仍是进口商。
This is the most complex risk issue in the 2026 IEEPA monetization market. Many importers passed IEEPA tariff costs downstream. Following the ruling, a wave of "double recovery" class action suits has targeted importers. When the importer sells its refund participation, this legal risk does not transfer — the government pays the refund to the importer, but the downstream lawsuit targets the importer.
三层框架建议：协议应区分：(1) 已披露的具体下游索赔（买方已知，折入定价）；(2) 签署后新产生的下游索赔（卖方不承担）；(3) 因卖方故意隐瞒而导致的索赔（卖方承担）。
Three-tier framework: The agreement should distinguish: (1) disclosed specific downstream claims (buyer has knowledge, priced in); (2) downstream claims arising after signing (seller not responsible); (3) claims arising from deliberate seller concealment (seller liable).
根据美国联邦法律（19 U.S.C. § 1505(c)），政府对退款通常须支付利息。IEEPA关税从2025年4月积累至2026年2月，利息金额相当可观，是一个经常被出售方忽视但不应忽视的条款。
Under U.S. federal law (19 U.S.C. § 1505(c)), the government typically owes interest on duty refunds. With IEEPA duties paid from April 2025 through February 2026, accrued interest is meaningful — a frequently overlooked but financially significant provision.
IEEPA退税仍存在不确定性——政府可能上诉，CAPE系统可能长期延误，或国会可能采取行动。出售方必须确保在最坏情况下，风险已被买方知情地承担。
IEEPA refund recovery remains uncertain — the government could appeal, CAPE could remain delayed indefinitely, or Congress could act. Sellers must ensure that worst-case scenario risks have been knowingly assumed by the buyer.
- 购买价格的不可退还性：无论退税是否最终到账，买方已支付的购买价格不得要求退还。这是非追索性结构的核心保障。 Non-refundability of purchase price: Regardless of whether and when the refund is received, the purchase price is non-refundable. This is the core of the non-recourse protection.
- 超时终止权：若退款在约定最长等待期（如24个月）内仍未到账，允许双方终止协议，不互相追索。保护卖方不被无限期配合义务套牢。 Long-stop termination right: If the refund has not been received within a defined maximum period (e.g., 24 months), both parties may terminate without mutual recourse. Protects the seller from indefinite cooperation obligations.
- 政策逆转保护：若国会立法或行政令重新取消退款权利，明确约定该风险由买方承担，不构成卖方退还购买价格的依据。 Policy reversal protection: If Congressional action or executive order retroactively eliminates refund rights, this risk should expressly fall on the buyer — not constitute grounds to reclaim the purchase price from the seller.
出售方必须了解的法律风险
Legal Risks Sellers Must Understand
"双重补偿"集体诉讼浪潮
The "Double Recovery" Class Action Wave
进口商如果(1) 将IEEPA关税成本转嫁给了消费者，并且(2) 同时向政府申请退税，原告律师将主张其"双重补偿"。截至2026年3月中旬，已有至少五家律所提起了这类集体诉讼。对于出售退税参与权的进口商，即便退税款项立即被转付给买方，进口商仍会成为下游诉讼的目标。
Importers who (1) passed IEEPA tariff costs to consumers via price increases, and (2) are now pursuing government refunds face "double recovery" class action claims. At least five law firms had filed such suits by mid-March 2026. For sellers of refund participations: even if refund proceeds are immediately forwarded to the buyer upon receipt, the importer remains the litigation target.
不要在公开声明（earnings call、投资者披露、网站FAQ）中宣布正在积极追索大额IEEPA退税，同时又有明确的关税驱动提价记录。原告律师正在系统性地检索这类矛盾陈述并在诉状中援引。如果你正在考虑出售参与权，请先与法律顾问对齐公开披露策略。
Do not make public statements (earnings calls, investor disclosures, website FAQs) claiming you are actively pursuing large IEEPA refunds while having documented tariff-driven price increases. Plaintiffs' counsel are systematically monitoring these contradictory statements. If considering a participation sale, align your public disclosure strategy with legal counsel first.
出售行为本身可能成为下游诉讼的证据
The Sale Transaction as Evidence in Downstream Litigation
若进口商将关税成本转嫁给下游，而随后以较高折扣率出售退税参与权（隐含了对退税成功的较高确认），下游原告可能主张：进口商在主张大额退税前已知退税将实现，但未告知其客户。在出售参与权前，应与律师评估这一信息披露风险。
If an importer passed tariff costs downstream and then sold its refund participation at a meaningful rate (implying high confidence in recovery), downstream plaintiffs may argue this demonstrates the importer knew a substantial refund was coming while customers were paying inflated prices. Assess this disclosure risk with counsel before executing a participation sale.
在先承诺与"双重出售"风险
Prior Commitments & Competing Sale Risk
若出售方曾向多家潜在买家披露权利信息并接受过Term Sheet，落选买方可能主张某种权利。签约前应确认不存在与其他方的竞争性未了承诺，并在合同中作出相应的陈述保证。
If the seller approached multiple potential buyers and provided Term Sheets before finalizing with one buyer, unsuccessful bidders may assert claims. Before signing, confirm no competing outstanding commitments to other parties, and include corresponding representations in the agreement.
参与权出售的财务报告处理
Financial Reporting for Participation Sales
这类交易的财务报告处理尚无完全统一的行业共识，但以下是目前市场观察到的主流倾向：
Financial reporting treatment for these transactions has not fully converged, but the following reflects current market practice observations:
| 维度Dimension | 按借款处理（主流）Treated as Borrowing (Dominant) | 按收益处理Treated as Gain |
|---|---|---|
| 收款时税务Tax at receipt | 通常无即时税务义务Generally no immediate tax liability | 可能在收款当期触发应税事件May trigger taxable event in period of receipt |
| 资产负债表Balance sheet | 负债增加，非即时利润Liability increase, not immediate profit | 即时增加其他收入Immediate other income recognized |
| 并购QofE处理M&A QofE Treatment | 历史IEEPA关税作为非经常性支出列示；退税权利不纳入历史EBITDA调整，而是作为或有利好通过交易结构单独处理（价格调整条款、托管安排等）。Historical IEEPA tariffs disclosed as non-recurring costs; refund rights excluded from historical EBITDA normalization — treated as contingent upside through transaction structuring (price adjustments, escrows, refund-sharing provisions). | |
| 法定利息Statutory interest | 政府支付的法定利息通常按普通收入征税，应提前与税务顾问确认。Government-paid statutory interest is generally taxable as ordinary income — confirm with tax counsel in advance. | |
借款 vs 收益的处理对现金流规划和当期税负影响显著，且两种处理方式下的财务报告披露要求也不同。在签署参与权协议之前，应与公司审计师和税务顾问共同确认拟采用的处理方式及其依据。
The borrowing vs. gain distinction materially affects cash flow planning and current-period tax liability, with different financial reporting disclosure requirements under each approach. Confirm the intended treatment and its rationale with your auditors and tax counsel before signing the Participation Agreement.
出售方签约前核查清单
Seller's Pre-Signing Checklist
CBP ACH注册完成CBP ACH Enrolled
未注册将导致退款被拒，是买方尽调第一项检查。Without enrollment, CBP rejects refund payments regardless of outcome.
权利量化完成Claim Fully Quantified
所有条目记录整理完毕，按清算状态分类。All entry records compiled and categorized by liquidation status.
法律权利已保全Legal Rights Preserved
已提交行政抗议和/或向CIT提起诉讼。Administrative protests filed and/or CIT suit initiated.
下游转嫁风险已评估Pass-Through Risk Assessed
已确认哪些成本曾转嫁给下游及对应索赔风险。Downstream pass-through documented; claim risk quantified.
非追索性结构确认Non-Recourse Confirmed
协议明确为Non-Recourse，例外仅限欺诈/故意虚假陈述。Agreement expressly non-recourse; exceptions limited to fraud/intentional misrepresentation.
陈述保证范围限定Representations Scoped
未保证退款金额、时间表或下游不存在索赔。No guarantees of refund amount, timeline, or absence of downstream claims.
和解否决权已取得Settlement Veto Secured
买方不得在未经卖方同意的情况下接受损害卖方利益的和解。Buyer cannot accept settlements adverse to seller without seller consent.
超时终止条款Long-Stop Termination
约定最长等待期（如24个月），届时双方可无责终止。Maximum waiting period defined (e.g., 24 months); no-fault termination thereafter.
利息归属明确Interest Allocation Specified
法定利息的归属已在协议中明确约定。Statutory interest attribution expressly agreed in the agreement.
会计税务处理确认Accounting & Tax Confirmed
与审计师确认出售款项的财务报告处理方式。Accounting treatment of sale proceeds confirmed with auditors and tax counsel.
公开披露策略对齐Disclosure Strategy Aligned
外部声明策略已与法律顾问对齐，避免矛盾陈述。External communications reviewed by counsel to avoid contradictory statements.
考虑保留部分权益Retained Upside Considered
是否通过部分出售并保留自留份额来分享Upside？Evaluated partial sale with retained stake to share in potential upside.